Last week we were all treated to a lot of new material for WB and DC's upcoming The Suicide Squad, from the "horribly beautiful" mind of one James Gunn. In addition to the first trailer for the film, we were treated to a number of character posters which included the tagline "don't get too attached." Subtlety is not a big part of this movie's ad campaign to say the least. They might as well have just said "A bunch of these people are going to fucking die."
They are called The Suicide Squad, after all, and the cast of the new movie is so stacked that it's basically a foregone conclusion that not everybody is going to survive. Certainly, there were a few people who died in the first Suicide Squad, but in the sequel one gets the impression that survival will be the exception, not the rule.
So who is going to live and who is going to die in The Suicide Squad? Well, we've crunched the numbers, looked at the science, and then we blindfolded ourselves and threw darts at a DC poster. Here are our very early impressions of every character featured in the new trailer and their odds of dying in The Suicide Squad.
We'll start with the one character that we all know and love, and the one who, let's face it, is least likely to die in The Suicide Squad. Margot Robbie's Harley Quinn is the most popular character going into this movie, and she'll likely be the most popular character still alive coming out of it. Robbie's Harley is the franchise player, and so it seems crazy that WB would allow Quinn to be killed off. There are so many more sequels and spinoffs that Harley can appear in, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that she'll live to fight another day.
Odds of Dying: 1 million to 1
Viola Davis is a fantastic Amanda Waller because she makes you want to see Waller end up dead more than possibly any other character in the movie, including the villain. She's just the absolute worst and so easy to hate. But that's exactly why it seems unlikely for her die this time around. The trailer teases that Waller's life is in jeopardy, but the history of movie marketing tells us that makes it less likely to actually happen. What happens to the drama of any potential sequel if Waller isn't there to make life hell for our team of heroes?
Odds of Dying: 200 to 1
Daniela Melchior plays Ratcatcher in The Suicide Squad, a villain who's main ability is that she can control rats. The trailer implies that she and Bloodsport will build some sort of relationship. While it's likely a simple friendship, each one seems committed to making sure the other one makes it through the mission alive. Maybe they'll both succeed, but that feels unlikely. What's feels more likely is that one of them will live, and the other will not. If only one of them makes it through, our guess is that Ratcatcher will live, thanks to Bloodsport's sacrifice.
Odds of Dying: 100 to 1
David Dastmalchian's Polka-Dot Man was one of the first new characters confirmed for The Suicide Squad, which largely set the stage for just what this movie was going to be like. We see Polka-Dot Man frequently in the new trailer, which at least gives an impression he's in a lot of the movie, and thus more likely to survive. But what's more, the character actually says at one point in the trailer that he hopes to die. Maybe he'll get his wish, but it seems a more James Gunn-like response would be for Polka-Dot to repeatedly put himself at risk, trying to die, and somehow continuously survive.
Odds of Dying: 75 to 1
Sol Soria isn't a member of the Suicide Squad but is, instead, the team's main contact in Corto Maltese, where much of the action for the film will take place. Because she isn't technically part of the team, she probably has a much better chance of survival. Is she really going to stick her neck out for these jackasses? She's not in the trailer all that much, which could indicate she's not going to live long, but in this case it seems more likely that she's just not going to hang around with The Suicide Squad and may only have a small part.
Odds of Dying: 50 to 1
Following the release of the trailer, King Shark seems to be the one character that everybody is talking about, at least more than the others. With motion capture performance by Steve Agee and the voice of Sylvester Stallone, what's not to love? From all outward appearances King Shark is a big part of this movie, and he's already one of the more entertaining bits in the trailer. It's no guarantee he'll survive, but he's certainly not the canon fodder some of these characters are. It seems likely he'll survive.
Odds of Dying: 30 to 1
Thinker is an interesting character because the trailer tells us that he's not so much a member of Task Force X, rather he's a source of information for them. However, the opening parts of the trailer, showing the attempted rescue of Harley, show Thinker in the van with the rest of the crew. He may not be there willingly, but it does seem like he'll be joined at the hip with the squad for some period of time. The fact that he may not technically be a member of the team would likely increase his odds of survival here. It's also possible that once the team gets what they need from him, he's expendable.
Odds of Dying: 30 to 1
Harley Quinn won't be the only member of the original film's cast returning, as Joel Kinnaman will be back to play Colonel Rick Flag. While Harley Quinn seems like a virtual certainty to survive, that feels less true for basically everybody else in the movie. Flag looks very different here, less like the military man he was in the first movie, and if Flag is really more just part of the team, then his odds of surviving go down. One could see Flag valiantly sacrificing himself if the need arose. He's not guaranteed to die, but he certainly could bite it.
Odds of Dying: 20 to 1
John Cena's Peacemaker is one of the more entertaining bits of the trailer. It's no shock that Cena is getting his own HBO Max series based around the character following The Suicide Squad. The fact that the character is getting his own show might make one feel like his survival is more likely. However, the series is set to be an origin story, meaning it's all set before this movie, so there are no plot requirements that Peacemaker live. Also, making a prequel series about a character that we already know is going to die in some wild, insane, spectacular way, feels like something James Gunn would do.
Odds of Dying: 12 to 1
While Bloodsport wasn't a part of the first movie, he's apparently a man in some position of authority for the current version of Task Force X. While he doesn't appear to be the sort who might valiantly sacrifice himself for others, there does seem to be one potential exception to that. As mentioned earlier, in one scene in the trailer we see Bloodsport and Ratcatcher, both promising that they will assure that the other one survives. If I were to place a bet, and that's sort of the point of this whole exercise, I'd wager that one of them will succeed in that vow, and the other will not. Of the two, Bloodsport would seem the most likely to die.
Odds of Dying: 10 to 1
There are more than a few real question marks in The Suicide Squad and one of the biggest is probably Weasel. He's just sort of a bipedal weasel. He's only in the trailer for a couple of shots that at least don't appear to be terribly consequential. That could indicate that the character dies early and doesn't impact the rest of the movie. And he's probably not the best at following orders. At the same time, sometimes being overlooked is exactly what helps you survive a movie like this. He's probably still going to die, though.
Odds of Dying: 8 to 1
It doesn't feel like too much of a stretch to say that somebody from the original Suicide Squad is going to end up dead. If the whole point of the group is that survival seems unlikely, then nobody is going to out run death for long. If Harley and Waller are likely to survive, that leaves Flag and Captain Boomerang as the likely candidates to buy the farm, and while Flag is a possibility, I feel like Boomerang is the potentially more entertaining, and therefore more likely, death.
Odds of Dying: 5 to 1
James Gunn casts Michael Rooker in his movies a lot. James Gunn kills Michael Rooker in his movies a lot. Rooker dies in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Rooker dies in Super. Rooker gets transformed into a hideous alien monster and then he dies in Slither. Rooker is going to die in The Suicide Squad. One can't really imagine any character played by Michael Rooker going along with the whole Task Force X idea for very long. Savant is almost certainly going to die, probably because Waller is going to blow up his head when he stops listening to her.
Odds of Dying: 4 to 1
What is there to say about Pete Davidson's Blackguard? He's in the trailer about as much as Weasel, which is to say not much. Also, he looks like he's in way over his head. He's certainly being set up as fodder for the meat grinder that is The Suicide Squad, and while that could be a misdirect, it feels like this guy is going to last just about as long as you think he is.
Odds of Dying: 3 to 1
Nathan Fillion is another of James Gunn's personal rogues' gallery. He tends to fair a bit better than Michael Rooker when it comes to surviving James Gunn movies, but only slightly. Little is known about the character he's even playing, simply known as TDK. Early reports that Fillion was playing the character Arm-Fall-Off-Boy have been denied, but some rumors have claimed that TDK actually stands for The Detachable Kid, implying a similar powerset for the character. If this is the case, then it seems likely we'll see Fillion's character blown to pieces, which is not the same thing as claiming he'll end up dead, but, you know, probably.
Odds of Dying: 2 to 1 he appears to die, maybe still comes back for the sequel
Javelin & Mongal
Thar characters of Javelin and Mongal don't even get their own entry because they're each in the trailer for the movie the same amount. They're visible in this group shot from the trailer and we don't see them anywhere else. The trailer is just telling us right up front not to get too invested in these characters because they're not in the movie much. Could this be a misdirect? Could the duo have been CGI'd out of the rest of the trailer to throw us off? Sure, that's certainly possible, but in this case the more likely scenario is that they just die early. Possibly seconds after this shot. Basically, everybody in this shot is dead.
Odds of Dying: They're basically already dead
With a cast this large in a movie literally called The Suicide Squad, we know not everybody is going to make it out. Hell, maybe they'll all end up dead. It'll be like Rogue One, but funnier. At this point, we're making projections based on the most minimal information. We may need to readjust these numbers as more details about the plot and characters come out, but this certainly feels like a good place to start. Whoever ends up making it through, it seems clear this movie is going to have an impressive body count on both sides. We'll learn who lives and who dies when The Suicide Squad opens in theaters and on HBO Max on August 6.